October 29, 2024 | By [Your Name]
The shadows of Dunwall have been quiet for far too long. Seven years after Billie Lurk‘s quest in Death of the Outsider, fans of supernatural stealth-action have been eagerly watching for signs of Dishonored 3. The franchise that redefined first-person action with its blend of stealth, parkour, and supernatural abilities has left players hungry for more.
But is Dishonored 3 actually happening? When might we see it? And what changes could we expect in this new chapter?
Let‘s cut through the rumors and examine what we know so far about this highly anticipated sequel.
Dishonored 3: Current Development Status
The gaming world buzzed with excitement in September 2023 when documents from Microsoft‘s FTC case accidentally leaked. These documents appeared to confirm that Arkane Studios had Dishonored 3 in its project pipeline. This leak represented the first substantial evidence that the franchise would continue despite previous statements suggesting the series might be "resting."
Harvey Smith, the creative director behind the Dishonored series, has neither confirmed nor denied these leaks directly. In his most recent interviews, he‘s maintained a careful position of acknowledging the franchise‘s importance to Arkane while focusing discussion on the studio‘s current projects.
What makes the situation complex is Arkane‘s current workload. The studio is deeply involved in developing Marvel‘s Blade, which was officially announced at The Game Awards 2023. This high-profile project is consuming significant resources within the studio, potentially impacting any parallel development on Dishonored 3.
The Microsoft Factor
Microsoft‘s acquisition of Bethesda (Arkane‘s parent company) in 2021 has added another layer to this situation. Under Microsoft‘s umbrella, Arkane Studios has experienced both new opportunities and restructuring challenges.
Microsoft‘s gaming strategy has evolved toward supporting games with dedicated player bases, and the Dishonored franchise certainly qualifies. The intellectual property has maintained its cultural relevance through its distinctive visual style, memorable characters, and unique gameplay mechanics.
Industry analysts suggest that Microsoft views the Dishonored IP as valuable but not necessarily urgent for immediate revival, especially with Arkane‘s current commitments.
Arkane‘s Development Capacity Analysis
To understand the possibility of Dishonored 3‘s development, we need to analyze Arkane‘s current capacity:
Arkane Studio Location | Estimated Staff Size | Current Known Projects | Potential Dishonored 3 Involvement |
---|---|---|---|
Arkane Austin | ~125 employees | Redfall support, Unannounced project | Possibly secondary studio |
Arkane Lyon | ~100 employees | Marvel‘s Blade (primary) | Likely lead studio for Dishonored 3 |
Sources within the industry indicate that Arkane Lyon, which led development on Dishonored 2, would be the primary studio for a third installment. However, with Marvel‘s Blade taking priority, any work on Dishonored 3 would likely be limited to pre-production with a small team.
Dishonored 3 Release Date: Analyzing the Timeline
Given what we know about Arkane‘s workload and the complexity of modern game development, we can make some educated projections about when Dishonored 3 might see the light of day.
Historical Development Cycles
Looking at Arkane‘s previous development timelines provides valuable context:
Game | Pre-production Started | Full Production | Release Date | Development Time |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dishonored | 2009 | 2010 | October 2012 | ~3 years |
Dishonored 2 | 2013 | 2014 | November 2016 | ~3.5 years |
Death of the Outsider | 2016 | 2017 | September 2017 | ~1.5 years (expansion) |
Deathloop | 2017 | 2018 | September 2021 | ~4 years |
Redfall | 2018 | 2019 | May 2023 | ~5 years |
Marvel‘s Blade | 2022 | 2023 | Expected 2026 | ~4 years (projected) |
This data shows Arkane‘s development cycles have generally lengthened over time, reflecting the increasing complexity of modern game development.
Current Timeline Projection
Based on industry patterns and Arkane‘s development history, here‘s a likely timeline for Dishonored 3:
- Concept phase: Likely began around 2022-2023
- Pre-production phase: Potentially ongoing since late 2023 or early 2024 with a small team
- Full production: Likely to begin after Marvel‘s Blade hits major development milestones (around 2025)
- Earliest possible release window: Late 2026
- More realistic release window: 2027-2028
This timeline accounts for several crucial factors:
- Marvel‘s Blade is Arkane‘s primary focus through at least 2025-2026
- Modern AAA games typically require 4-5 years of full development
- Microsoft‘s scheduling preferences for spacing out major releases
- Increased technical demands of current-generation hardware
Development Indicators to Watch For
While we wait for official confirmation, there are several indicators that would signal Dishonored 3 is moving forward:
- Staff hiring: Job listings at Arkane Studios referencing stealth or immersive sim experience
- Technology updates: Arkane switching to new engine technology (they‘ve historically used id Tech and Void Engine)
- Strategic silence: Periods where Arkane becomes unusually quiet about future projects beyond Blade
- Industry whispers: Reports from reliable gaming journalists about early development
- Studio expansion: Arkane increasing headcount beyond what‘s needed for current announced projects
Industry insider Jeff Grubb mentioned in his Game Mess podcast that "Arkane has plans for Dishonored that extend beyond just keeping the existing games playable," though he couldn‘t provide specific details on timing.
Market Timing Considerations
The timing of Dishonored 3‘s release would also need to consider:
- Hardware cycle: Targeting mid-generation Xbox Series X/S and PC for optimal installed base
- Competitive releases: Avoiding crowded release windows with similar titles
- Fiscal year planning: Aligning with Microsoft‘s fiscal calendar for maximum marketing support
- Game Pass strategy: Positioning as a major Game Pass title to drive subscription growth
Expected Platforms for Dishonored 3
The platform landscape has changed dramatically since Death of the Outsider launched in 2017. With Microsoft now owning Bethesda and Arkane Studios, the platform strategy for Dishonored 3 will likely align with Microsoft‘s broader gaming ecosystem approach.
Primary Release Platforms
Dishonored 3 would almost certainly launch on:
- Xbox Series X/S: As a Microsoft first-party title, this is guaranteed
- PC: Via Steam, Microsoft Store, and possibly Epic Games Store
- Xbox Cloud Gaming: Day one availability for Game Pass Ultimate subscribers
Console Market Analysis
Understanding the current console market provides context for platform decisions:
Platform | Estimated Install Base (2024) | Market Share | Relevance to Dishonored 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Xbox Series X/S | ~25 million | ~28% | Primary target platform |
PlayStation 5 | ~50 million | ~56% | Potential secondary platform |
Nintendo Switch | ~140 million | N/A (different market) | Unlikely target |
PC Gaming | ~700 million (total) | N/A (different market) | Primary target platform |
Sources: Industry analyst reports, manufacturer statements, market research
PlayStation 5 Possibilities
Unlike previous entries in the series that launched on PlayStation, Dishonored 3‘s availability on PS5 is less certain. Microsoft has taken varying approaches with Bethesda titles since the acquisition:
- Some games like Redfall and Starfield became Xbox/PC exclusives
- Others like Minecraft continue to receive cross-platform support
- Existing contractual obligations have been honored (Deathloop‘s PS5 timed exclusivity)
Since there was no pre-existing agreement for Dishonored 3 before the acquisition, Microsoft has full discretion over platform release strategy. Their decision will likely depend on:
- The timing of the release (further from acquisition increases cross-platform likelihood)
- Microsoft‘s overall platform strategy at the time of release
- The budget and commercial expectations for the game
Given Microsoft‘s recent openness to bringing some games to PlayStation (like Sea of Thieves), a delayed PS5 release remains possible, though Xbox and PC would definitely receive priority.
Platform-Specific Optimizations
Each platform would likely receive specific optimizations:
- Xbox Series X: 4K resolution, 60fps, ray tracing support
- Xbox Series S: 1440p resolution, 60fps, limited ray tracing
- PC: Scalable settings, DLSS/FSR support, uncapped frame rates
- Cloud Gaming: Optimized streaming settings, touch controls for mobile
Technical Analysis: Engine and Technology
The technical foundation of Dishonored 3 will significantly impact its development timeline and capabilities.
Engine Possibilities
Arkane has several potential engine choices for Dishonored 3:
Engine | Pros | Cons | Likelihood |
---|---|---|---|
Void Engine (Modified id Tech) | Familiar to team, optimized for immersive sims | Aging technology, requires significant updates | Medium |
Unreal Engine 5 | Cutting-edge features, strong toolset, industry standard | Learning curve, licensing considerations | High |
id Tech 7/8 | Access through Microsoft, excellent performance | Less flexible for immersive sim features | Low |
Custom Engine | Tailored to specific needs | Extremely resource-intensive to develop | Very Low |
Industry trends suggest Unreal Engine 5 is the most likely candidate, especially given:
- Microsoft‘s increasing standardization on UE5 across studios
- The engine‘s native support for next-gen features like Nanite and Lumen
- Easier staff onboarding due to widespread industry familiarity
Technical Features Analysis
Based on current technology trends, Dishonored 3 would likely incorporate:
- Ray tracing: For improved lighting, shadows, and reflections
- Procedural generation: For more varied environment details
- Advanced physics: For more sophisticated interaction with powers
- AI-driven systems: For more dynamic NPC behaviors and reactions
- Volumetric fog/lighting: Building on the series‘ distinctive visual style
- Dynamic global illumination: Enhancing the atmospheric environments
- Advanced audio systems: 3D audio for more immersive stealth gameplay
These features would require significant development time but would elevate the immersive sim aspects that define the series.
Gameplay Evolution: What to Expect in Dishonored 3
The Dishonored series is beloved for its "play your way" design philosophy, blending stealth, combat, and supernatural abilities in a reactive world. How might Dishonored 3 evolve these elements?
Core Gameplay Systems
Based on Arkane‘s design evolution across previous titles, Dishonored 3 would likely feature:
- Expanded mobility options: Building on the foundation of Blink/Far Reach with new traversal powers
- More nuanced chaos system: Moving beyond the binary high/low chaos of previous games toward a more complex reputation system
- Environmental interaction: Greater physics manipulation and world reactivity
- Enhanced AI systems: More sophisticated enemy behaviors and memory mechanics
- Dynamic mission structure: Less linear progression with more emergent objectives
Dinga Bakaba, who worked on previous Dishonored titles before becoming Studio Director at Arkane Lyon, once mentioned in an interview with Game Informer that the team had "hundreds of gameplay ideas that never made it into the final games" – suggesting a wealth of concepts that could find their way into a sequel.
Progression and Customization
Modern game design trends suggest Dishonored 3 might expand:
- Character progression: More RPG elements with skill trees and specializations
- Equipment customization: Modifiable weapons and gadgets
- Aesthetic options: More visual customization without affecting gameplay
- New Game Plus: Enhanced replayability with carried powers
Combat and Stealth Balance
Each Dishonored game has refined the balance between combat and stealth:
Game | Combat Focus | Stealth Focus | Balance Notes |
---|---|---|---|
Dishonored | Medium | High | Limited combat options, stealth heavily favored |
Dishonored 2 | High | High | Expanded combat, more varied non-lethal options |
Death of the Outsider | Medium | High | Streamlined powers, focus on infiltration |
Potential Dishonored 3 | High | High | Equal viability, seamless transitions between approaches |
Dishonored 3 would likely continue this evolution, creating more situations where players can fluidly switch between stealth and combat without feeling penalized.
Multiplayer Elements?
While Dishonored has always been a single-player experience, industry trends suggest Arkane might consider limited multiplayer functionality:
- Co-op possibilities: Two-player cooperative play similar to what was initially planned for Redfall
- Asynchronous elements: Player-created challenges or invasions similar to Deathloop‘s systems
- Persistent online features: Shared contracts or targets within the assassination framework
However, any multiplayer elements would likely complement rather than replace the core single-player experience that defines the franchise.
Commercial Analysis: Franchise Performance
Understanding Dishonored‘s commercial performance provides context for the likelihood of a sequel.
Sales Performance
While exact figures aren‘t publicly disclosed, industry data suggests:
Game | Estimated Sales | Critical Reception | Commercial Performance |
---|---|---|---|
Dishonored | 2.5+ million | 88 Metacritic | Strong (exceeded expectations) |
Dishonored 2 | 2.0+ million | 86 Metacritic | Underperformed initial projections |
Death of the Outsider | ~1 million | 82 Metacritic | Met expectations for DLC/expansion |
Sources: Analyst estimates, SuperData Research, NPD Group data
The sales trend shows a challenging pattern common to immersive sims: critical acclaim doesn‘t always translate to commercial growth. However, the franchise‘s cultural impact and long-tail sales have maintained its value.
Game Pass Factor
Microsoft‘s Game Pass subscription service changes the calculation for Dishonored 3‘s commercial viability:
- Less reliance on traditional sales metrics
- Value measured in subscription retention and acquisition
- Lower threshold for "success" in terms of direct sales
- Additional monetization opportunities through DLC/expansions
This model has revitalized several franchises that might not justify traditional AAA budgets based on sales alone.
Franchise Value Analysis
Beyond direct sales, Dishonored brings several valuable assets to Microsoft:
- Prestige value: Critical acclaim and industry respect
- Demographic reach: Appeals to hardcore gamers who influence broader adoption
- Technical showcase: Demonstrates cutting-edge visual and systems design
- Genre diversity: Balances Microsoft‘s portfolio across game types
- Creative talent retention: Provides creative fulfillment to keep key developers
Story Directions for Dishonored 3
The conclusion of Death of the Outsider presented a significant turning point for the Dishonored universe, with the potential elimination of the Outsider and fundamental changes to how supernatural powers function in this world.
Narrative Structure Analysis
Dishonored games have followed certain narrative patterns:
Game | Protagonist | Primary Conflict | Moral Theme |
---|---|---|---|
Dishonored | Corvo Attano | False accusation, revenge | Corruption vs. redemption |
Dishonored 2 | Corvo/Emily | Coup, reclaiming throne | Leadership responsibility |
Death of the Outsider | Billie Lurk | Hunting the Outsider | Freedom vs. determinism |
Potential Dishonored 3 | New/returning character |